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Global Warming and the Real Estate Market

Thursday, August 19th, 2010

The Concord Monitor reported last week that “Statewide residential sales fell (in NH) nearly 32% in July from a year earlier… the steepest annual decline in more than two years…” Yes, July was not a particularly great month for home sales in NH or for that matter anywhere else, but why does everyone have to focus so much on every little negative turn? In the Lakes Region of NH, the towns in this report were only down about 10% last month compared to last July, but more importantly on a 12 month rolling basis our area is up 15% over the previous 12 month period. While we should keep a cautious eye on monthly housing statistics, a one month decline does not make a trend. The average sales price for the 12 month period ending July 31, 2010 stood at $307,881 compared to $292,502 for the period ending July 31, 2009. The average sales price in July only was slightly less at $262,390, but that is no cause for alarm; it is a reflection of what sold that month.

I don’t believe in the whole global warming thing, but I do agree with the latest legislation coming out of Washington. The Real Estate Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Stimulus Act of 2011 is intended to deal with home buyers who have run amuck and are contributing enormous amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere thereby hastening the demise of modern civilization as we know it. Many of the agents that I have talked to over the past several weeks are becoming increasing frustrated in dealing with buyers that seem to be doing nothing more than increasing their carbon footprint. I know they have been increasing mine. This timely legislation targets three major types of home buyers that are negatively affecting our future on planet earth:

1. The largest group are the buyers that need to sell something before they can buy. While these buyers have always existed, historically they were able to sell their homes in a reasonable period and purchase another. Now, it could take several years. Many of these buyers don’t even have their homes on the market. The legislation will require these buyers to stay home and stop burning fossil fuels to look at property unless their property is on the market at a price that is enough of a value that someone will actually buy it. These buyers not only are wasting precious natural resources themselves, they set into motion a chain reaction of events that causes the home owner, the listing agent, and their agent to do the same.

2. The next group of buyers targeted are those that can’t make up their minds…ever. These buyers usually start off by saying that they have been looking for quite awhile but can’t seem to find the right house. Many times they are seeking a vacation home and revisit this doomed exercise every summer. They show up at the height of the season, look at every possibility in a given price range, and then disappear without a farewell only to resurface next year to start all over again. They are looking for that “perfect” home. This legislation finally puts it in writing for the buyer; “There is no such thing as a perfect home.” I know I am not increasing my carbon footprint anymore for these types of buyers. If I am going to show them property, they better have a nice car because I am riding with them!

3. The last group of buyers are convinced that all homes are overpriced. The REGHGR&S Act will require buyers to complete an eight hour “pre-house search value course” designed to teach them what a fair price actually is. Special emphasis is put on teaching buyers that not every home can be bought for one half of the listing price. It is estimated that this will cut the time required to find a home in half saving 13 trillion tons of carbon dioxide per year from being belched into the atmosphere. Over the past three years, this group of buyers has been responsible for a 1.7 degree increase in the average annual temperature.

This act also eliminates the use of multiple vehicles to look at property—every seat in the primary vehicle must be occupied before another vehicle can be utilized. I’ve been to some showings where you’d think it was a presidential motorcade coming to look at a property. I could tell that it wasn’t because the cars weren’t shiny black and the guys in the lead cars didn’t have three piece suits and sunglasses. But you get the idea. Why do you need six cars? Cousin Eddie doesn’t need to see the house until after you buy it. The act requires that at least one of the buyers looking for property to be in the same car as the agent. Imagine that, getting back to basics by having the buyer actually spending time with his agent, in person, discussing his needs.

The Real Estate Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Stimulus Act of 2011 has many provisions that will not only be good for the environment, but will also revive the housing market. The “Stimulus” part of the Act requires buyers to sign a contract stating that they will buy a home after completing a tour of no more than twelve properties in their stated price range. Buyers will have an option to purchase Carbon Tax Credits in lieu of purchasing a home at the end of the contract period. These Tax Credits will be transferred to the real estate agent to compensate him for his increased carbon foot print. The only exception to this is if the buyer has a Chevrolet Volt which will limit the whole real estate tour to 40 miles anyway.

Good plan (too bad it isn’t real)…

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The Home Inspection Hurdle

Thursday, August 5th, 2010

August is the high point for the summer. Unfortunately, it is also the high point for the total number residential listings on the market this year. As of August 1 there were 1344 homes on the market in the Lakes Region towns in this report. That’s up 6% from the 1277 available last month and the 1281 posted last August. Based on the rate of sales for the previous 12 months, we have a 21.5 month supply of homes on the market. The average asking price as of August 1 was $539,186 which is down a bit from the $573,567 recorded last August. The number of homes available under $200,000 rose 5% from 318 last August to 397 this August.

One of the biggest hurdles in purchasing a home today is the home inspection process. I recommend that everyone get a home inspection on the property that they intend to purchase. I guess one exception to the rule could be a newly constructed home that has had oversight by the local building inspector, but I still recommend it anyway. Up until last year, just about anyone with a clip board, a flashlight, and a little bit of building knowledge could be a home inspector in NH. Thankfully, the state passed a licensing law that requires all home inspectors to have completed the National Home Inspectors licensing exam. They also have to successfully complete 80 hours of approved pre-licensing education covering heating and cooling systems, plumbing, electrical, foundations, structural components, roof coverings, exterior and interior components, and site aspects that can affect structures. Continuing education is also required to keep inspectors up to date.

Hopefully, a well maintained home will not have any significant issues and the buyer can move one step closer toward owning the home. But many times issues do come up that need to be addressed and the home inspection then becomes another point of negotiations between the buyer and the seller. The buyer has a right to ask that any undisclosed significant issues or defects be repaired or remedied by the seller. If the seller does not want to repair the defect, another remedy is to negotiate a dollar amount off the price of the property so that the buyer can have the issue corrected at a later date. If the seller refuses to fix the defect or compensate the buyer in any way, the buyer can declare the deal null and void and get his deposit back so he can look for another home. Hopefully, it doesn’t come to that but it does happen fairly frequently. Sometimes small issues and related repair costs become overblown and buyers and sellers lose sight of the real goal which is to buy and sell a house.

Every home will have maintenance issues that will need to be addressed so bear that in mind if you are a buyer. No home is 100% perfect, so don’t sweat the small stuff too much! Be more concerned about the big things like the roof, the foundation, septic system, heating, cooling, and electrical. Make sure you get a Home Depot or Lowes charge card because they are essential in the home owning experience. These cavernous warehouses of household pieces and parts are places for you to go to strategically avoid actually doing a necessary repair…at least for a while. If you are selling a home, try and remember that even though you have gotten along for the past ten years with the overhead door not working correctly and the bricks ready to fall off the top of your chimney, the buyer really does expect most things to be in good repair. Having your home in tip top shape when you place it on the market can alleviate a lot of stress down the sales process and will actually bring you a higher sales price. Imagine that, now go to Home Depot.

Your REALTOR® can provide you with a list of home inspector’s names and their company brochures to compare services and pricing for the different types of inspections. You are also free to pick any home inspector you want. Check the yellow pages. Inspectors may complete and provide their report to you right there at the time of the inspections. Others may provide it by email within a day or so. As a buyer, you should be there for the home inspection process so that you can watch, ask questions, and learn about the home that you are about to purchase and be responsible for maintaining. It also gives your wife time to measure for curtains and determine which closet you might be able to use for your clothes…

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Winnipesaukee and Winnisquam Waterfront Sales Report – 1st Half of 2010

Friday, July 23rd, 2010

June was a pretty good month for Winnipesaukee waterfront sales with a total of eight happy new homeowners finding a home to dock their boats on the shores of the big lake. This doesn’t quite measure up to the eleven sales last June, but the average sales price came in higher at $1.38 million compared to an average of $771,773 last June. There were five sales over $1 million last month compared to three last June.

The least expensive home that sold on the lake was at 56 Braun Bay Road in Moultonborough. Originally listed at $1.2 million, it was reduced to $895,000 and sold at $830,000 after 754 days on the market. This home is a 1,660 square foot, six room, three bedroom cottage that was completely and tastefully remodeled in 1996. The home has a nice eat in kitchen, living room with fireplace, loft area, a nice deck offering great views of the lake and mountains beyond, and a two car garage with a playroom above. The cottage sits on a .42 acre lot with 100 feet of frontage, a sandy beach, and a covered dock. I bet the new owners have enjoyed it immensely during this recent heat wave.

On the other end of the price spectrum, a vintage cottage at 304 Woodlands Road in Alton with two separate lots of record totaling 2.79 acres sold well below the $2.4 million asking price at $1.9 million. The property has expansive lake views, a total of 565 feet of shorefront, and a deepwater boathouse. There is a new five bedroom septic system servicing the cottage with another five bedroom septic design included for the other lot. You can expect to see a couple new homes there in the future…

The highest sale on Winnie in June was at 45 Swan Point Road in Moultonborough. This high end, Craftsman style lake home has 6,000 square feet of living space including 6 bedrooms, eight baths, a designer kitchen, great room with cathedral ceilings and fireplace, game room, and all the other requisite amenities expected at this price point. There is even a 700 square foot, three season pavilion sitting steps from the water on a point of land that provides gorgeous views. There is no need to go back to the main house for lunch as inside the pavilion you’ll find a kitchen, dining area, and half bath. This home sits on a very private 1.73 acre lot with 668 feet of frontage with a sandy beach, three docks, and a boat ramp. The home was listed at $3.49 million and sold for $3.15 million after 421 days. My kind of place.

Waterfront sales over the first 6 months of 2010 are ahead of last year with a total of 39 sales compared to 30 last year. The average sales price is up considerably from $839,858 in the 1st half of 2009 to $1.25 million so far this year. The total sales volume year to date comes in at $48.7 million compared to just $25 million over the same period last year. There were nine sales over a million in the 1st half of 2009 compared to nineteen so far this year. It seems that perhaps there is some confidence returning in the marketplace with buyers realizing that Winnipesaukee waterfront is a sound and safe place to invest.

There was only one sale on Winnisquam in June. Located at 30 Broadview in Sanbornton, this like new, 1,963 square foot contemporary home built in 2005 has six rooms, three bedrooms, and two and a half bath. The home sits on a .12 acre lot with 55 feet of frontage and has a nice sandy beach with great views down the broad part of the lake. This property was listed at $399,900 and sold for $389,000 which was well below the assessed value of $468,500. Sales are definitely up in the first half of 2010 on Winnisquam with seven sales at an average sales price of $521,571 compared to just two sales in the first half of 2009 at an average of $341,250.

Currently there are over 260 waterfronts for sale on Winnipesaukee including island properties and almost 30 on Winnisquam. That is one very large boat load of expensive real estate. Let’s hope the great weather continues to heat up the interest in these properties and we have a banner summer season!

Winnipesaukee Waterfront Sales June 2010

Address Town SqFt Close Date List Price Assmt Close Price Sell/ List
56 Braun Bay Rd Moultonborough 1660 6/25 $895,000 $750,900 $830,000 93%
8 Christian Cove Rd Tuftonboro 3400 6/25 $996,000 $1,040,900 $802,500 81%
29 Second Point Rd Moultonborough 2940 6/30 $999,000 $802,600 $925,000 93%
44 Terrace Hill Gilford 3500 6/10 $1,249,000 $706,360 $1,150,000 92%
0 Farm Island Tuftonboro - 6/21 $1,250,000   $1,250,000 100%
39 Oak Island Rd Meredith 1724 6/28 $1,399,900 $1,329,500 $1,000,000 71%
304 Woodlands Rd Alton 2218 6/15 $2,395,000 $1,649,200 $1,900,000 79%
45 Swan Pt. Rd Moultonborough 6013 6/25 $3,490,000 $3,201,000 $3,150,000 90%

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Lakes Region of NH Residential Market Report – 1st Half of 2010

Friday, July 16th, 2010

We are half way through another year and you have to ask: “Are we having fun yet?”. In the communities covered by this Lakes Region of NH report, home sales have improved nicely but it certainly doesn’t feel like we are at the Six Flags Amusement Park. Every sale now seems to be fraught with unending complications and issues as a result of increased regulations and scrutiny of the lenders and underwriters. It feels more like Chevy Chase gone mad at Wally World. Despite these difficulties, there were 88 residential home sales for the month of June which is an 18% increase over last June’s total of 75 homes. Once again most of the sales, 52% of them to be exact, were below $200,000. There were four sales in the $1 million plus bracket and the average sales price came in at $292,566 compared to $262,119 last June.

For the first six months of the year, there were a total of 364 residential home sales compared to 306 for the first half of 2009. That’s a solid 19% increase. The average sales price so far this year came in at $298,945 compared to $254,071 for the first half on 2009. We are still pretty far below the $363,753 average sales price for the first six months of 2008, but we are certainly headed in the right direction on the number units sold and average price. There were sixteen homes over $1 million so far this year compared to just six in the first half of 2009. That seems to indicate that, at least in some quarters, there’s a positive outlook about investing in high end real estate. There also was an increase on sales below the $200,000 mark: there were 195 in the first half of 2010, 170 in 2009, and only 119 in 2008. There was a slight bump up in the $200-300,000 price range from 67 sales during the first half last year to 79 sales so far this year.

On a rolling 12 month basis there were 779 sales at an average sales price of $308,917 this past year ending 6/30/10 compared to 667 sales at an average $298,862 for the prior twelve month period. That’s a 17% increase in total sales over the past year which is really a very good sign. Actually, I think it is a great sign!

We seem to be posting small gains every month now. It is kind of like putting spare change away every night and pretty soon you can afford a night out on the town. The real estate market did not deteriorate overnight even though it might have felt that way, so it is going to take a while to get back to normal or to whatever the new “normal” will be. Buyers, sellers, and everyone else involved in the real estate world will adapt to that new market level. Hopefully the financial safeguards and lending guidelines that have been put in place will prevent another meltdown and also, hopefully, not choke the public’s ability to buy homes. The market has changed dramatically but with interest rates at unheard of lows, a huge inventory of homes to choose from, and incredible values to be found it is the perfect time for those with the desire and ability to purchase a home. The desire for homeownership is solidly ingrained in our culture, so it is obvious that “ability” is the real stumbling block to a complete turn-round in the housing market and that hinges on a resurgent economy and job creation…

 

 

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For Sale:Bank Owned at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

Saturday, July 10th, 2010

The residential home inventory stood at 1277 homes available as of July 1, 2010 in the communities in this Lakes Region Real Estate Market Report. The average asking price came in at $551,228 and the median asking price was $285,000. This inventory level represents 19 ¾ months worth of homes on the market. That is down slightly from the 22 months worth of homes available last July 1 but we still have a long, long way to go to get back to a reasonable level somewhere in the 6 month range.

There are still a lot of foreclosures and bank owned properties coming on the market. We all know that these foreclosures are due to a bad economy in general resulting in job losses and home values plummeting. Many homeowners just got over extended and couldn’t pay the bills. So it worried me over this past 4th of July that the home most symbolic of our independence and freedom, The White House, might end up being auctioned off. We all may own a piece of that place, but no one is more over extended than our own government right now. If you or I were a trillion or two behind in payments we’d be out on the street fairly quickly. But then again, we don’t have the armed forces to keep the sheriff from serving papers do we? Here are some things to consider if we had to sell “our house” down in D.C.:

First of all, this 55,000 square foot, six level home has 132 rooms, 16 bedrooms, 35 bathrooms, 28 fireplaces, 3 elevators, 8 staircases and sits on 18 acres in the middle of the city. When construction of this home started in 1792 it was located just north of a swamp. Today, Congress is actually located to the Southeast. The most obvious thing that comes to real estate agent’s mind is that “they over built for the area”. This may not be an easy sale.

This “Presidential Mansion”, as it was once called, was designed by an Irishman named James Hoban. When George Washington looked at the plans he thought the house was too small and wasn’t fancy enough for a President. So one of the first federal construction projects got increased in size by 30% and was all gussied-up so it could also be called the “Presidential Palace”. Obviously, this was an omen of things to come. The construction took eight years at a cost of $232,371 or $2.8 million in 2007 dollars.

Many historical homes boast that “George Washington Slept Here” thereby increasing the value of the property. Provenance is everything to some buyers but unfortunately, George and Martha never slept in the White House. That could hurt our asking price some. John Adams, our second President, and his wife Abigail were actually the first to live in the home even though it was not completed. John apparently got an earful more than once from Abigail about the unfinished state of the home and ongoing construction. Sounds familiar. When Thomas Jefferson moved in he complained that the place was too big but then proceeded to lay out designs for new additions. The place is really a bit of an “expansion mansion” as it was added onto many times over the years. You have to wonder if things are up to code. By 1948 the White House was in pretty tough shape due to years of poor maintenance and President Truman ordered a complete reconstruction. This place sounds like it could be a home inspector’s nightmare…or maybe his ticket to retirement.

We also have to disclose that the property has had several fires. It was completely burned down by the British during the War of 1812. There was another fire which completely gutted the West Wing on Christmas Eve 1929 while President Hoover was at a holiday party in the main part of the home. In fact, one article I read says there are several minor fires there every decade. I’m not sure what the lender’s underwriter will think about that but I’m sure they will make it an issue.

Decorating a home like this can be a nightmare, but just about every President (his wife, to be more accurate) has redecorated the place to their own tastes. Can you imagine how many layers of wallpaper there must be in some of these room. Maintenance on a home like this can be never ending. Unfortunately, vinyl was not yet invented in 1792. It takes 570 gallons of paint to keep the White House looking white. Painting trim can be a big chore with 147 windows and 412 doors. This won’t be sold to a retiree.

But there are a lot of great amenities to help the sale. Truman made sure the place got central air in 1948. It also has a bowling alley, swimming pool, exercise room, jogging track, movie theater, billiard room and a dubious security system. The dining room can seat 140 of your closest friends and the gourmet kitchen is fit for a chef—five of them to be exact. Sounds like a Governors Island waterfront! It is clear that this home won’t appeal to everyone. While it is a historical home, buyers today don’t want money pits. They want new, modern, and easy to maintain homes. It could be a difficult home to sell except at a steeply discounted price. After all, no one has any money except for the Chinese. With that kitchen and dining room it could be the “White Dragon Palace” featuring General Ike Egg Rolls, Washington Won Ton Soup, and Clinton Chow Mein. They could even have specials: Pelosi Pork and Rangel Rangoon.

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A Home for Your Hog

Thursday, June 17th, 2010

It is the 87th Anniversary of the Laconia Motorcycle Rally and thousands of bikers have descended on the Lakes Region to enjoy the scenery and hospitality of the area. Today’s motorcycle enthusiasts are a far cry from the early days. Today there are doctors, lawyers (a few Indian Chiefs), business professionals, corporate executives, and more than a few real estate agents out there enjoying the “wind in your face” lifestyle. It is a different breed of biker today. Many are older and much more affluent. They have to be, as these gleaming iron horses cost more than a lot of the automobiles on the road today. With all these bikers here you’d think that more than just a few would be interested in finding a home for their hog right here in the Lakes Region. Here are a few methods we can employ to not only get these prospective biker/buyers to stop but to actually get them into your home, which is the essential step in getting them to buy it! You do want to sell, don’t you?

One only needs to look around to see what would get these prospective buyers to stop at your house. Bikini bike washes in your driveway will usually work. You’ll need a good sign and obviously someone to wear bikinis, so you should try and line up some college co-eds earlier in the year. Having a vendor selling T shirts, bike parts, or doing tattoos in your yard also works extremely well. If you have a pool in the back yard, a sign on the road advertising “Beach Bar Open” can be really effective marketing especially if you get the scantily clad Wild Turkey or Jagermeister girls to work the pool area and perhaps hold up signs near the street. The girls are essential as there is a lot of competition in this area just like in the housing market! Several other good ways to get potential buyers to stop is to advertise free camping in your back yard, put up a “Rally Headquarters” sign, or “Poker Run Stop” sign (all you need is a deck of cards). To make your property stand out paint your garage orange and black. To really get noticed, fly the American and MIA POW flags in your yard as bikers are very patriotic.

Once you get the bikers to stop you need to get them into the house. A “Free Beer Tomorrow” sign with an arrow pointed to your front door works well but may irritate some of your prospects because bikers aren’t stupid, they live for today, not tomorrow. Probably the most useful method will be a “Rest Room” sign. That is guaranteed to work.

Now that the biker/buyer is in the house, you can win him over easily with a few decorating tips. In the bath make sure that there’s a lot of chrome. Burnished bronze accessories don’t work for a biker. Towel and face cloth racks, lights, mirror frames, and shelves should all be chromed. Floors should be black and white tile. A black leather toilet seat cover would be perfect. You need a shower big enough for two (three is preferable). Once you’ve got his attention with the bathroom you can seal the deal with the living room. The living room should have, if it already doesn’t, a pool table dead center and black leather couches and chairs with leather saddle bags draped over the armrests. A large flat screen TV is also essential in this room. Throw in a few neon signs for ambiance and you are all set. If your wife doesn’t let you take it this far upstairs (i.e. if you are not a biker), then make sure your basement or your garage is outfitted as above. If you have no garage (that may put your home out of the running completely) you must make sure that your buyer can at least get his bike into the basement for storage in the winter. Storing the bike in the living room would be much better, but that could mess up the placement of the pool table.

Following these few simple suggestions should bring you a buyer during bike week, but you really shouldn’t try any of this alone. Always consult with a real estate agent (like me) that also rides. It is your safest bet to have a true professional biker/agent help during this opportune selling time! Next year I might even change my real estate yard signs to an orange and black sign just like the Harley Davidson logo, that should help.

The residential home sales activity in the Lakes Region during May 2010 was just about the same as in May of 2009. Last month there were 68 transactions at an average sales price of $314,665 and a median price of $183,000. In May 2009 there were 69 transactions at an average of $258,828 and a median sales price of $187,000. Home sales for the rolling 12 month period ending 5/31/10 totaled 765 transactions at an average sales price of $308,823 compared to 669 transactions at an average sales price of $307,896 for the 12 month period ending 5/31/09. That is a 14% increase in the total number of sales for that period. That’s certainly better than going the other way! Let’s hope home sales remain strong over the next few months and that everyone has a safe and sound bike week!

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E=mc² and the Housing Market in the Lakes Region of NH

Friday, June 4th, 2010

As of June 1, 2010 there were 1256 residential homes for sale in the communities in this Lakes Region market report. The average asking price stood at $578,941 and the median sales price was $299,000. This equates to a very high 19¾ month’s worth of inventory on the market (just in case you are wondering why it is taking a long time for your home to sell). In June of 2008 there were 1128 homes for sale and in June of 2009 we edged up to 1170. The average listing price has increased from $533,339 in June, 2008 and $562,780 in June, 2009 but this again is a reflection of what is for sale and definitely not an increase in overall home values.

It is no secret that it is taking longer to sell mid to upper end homes in today’s market. Homes currently on the market priced over $400,000 have been on an average of 213 days. The average days on market calculated by our MLS are lower than the actual days on market due to the fact that the system can only account for how long the home has been listed with the current real estate agency. Many homes have been listed multiple times with different agencies therefore the average days on market figure is higher—possibly a lot higher.

As of June 1, there were 163 homes listed with the same agency for more than a year and 29 of those were on for over 2 years! There were 7 new construction (to-be built) listings that exceeded 1800 days on the market (which actually is not unusual and they might be there another 1800 days).There were three other properties that exceeded 1,000 days on the market. There is an 800 square foot cottage in the water access community of Balmoral in Moultonborough that started out at $194,900 about 1113 days ago and now is offered at $184,900. Another is a 2,100 square foot, 3 bedroom home on the Merrymeeting River at 32 Suncook Valley Rd in Alton that was originally offered at $895,000 and has been reduced to $549,000 and has been on the market or 1092 days. Lastly there is a two bedroom cottage in the prestigious Bald Peak Colony in Moultonborough that was listed for $645,000 a mere 1097 days ago is now down to $450,000. Do you think these sellers might be getting a little anxious by now?

But you know, some homes do sell quickly! Since the first of the year 108 out of the 278 homes sold (as of June 2) were sold in less than two months! Of those, 64 homes sold in less than a month! The homes that sold in 31 days or less averaged 97% of their asking price and the average sales price was 87% of their assessed values (for those listings reporting their assessments). Homes that sold between 32 to 62 days of coming on the market garnered 91% of their asking price and the average sales price was 96% of their assessed values. The average time on the market for all 278 homes that sold was 162 days. Now some of these homes could have been on the market with another agency for more money before, but you get the drift.

You had to be Einstein to come up with E=mc², but you don’t have to be a genius to figure out that providing a buyer with a good value = lower DOM.

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Stuck in the middle with you…

Friday, May 14th, 2010

The housing market continues to show some improvement in the Lakes Region with 71 residential home sales in the month of April, 2010 compared to just 50 in April 2009. That’s a strong 43% increase! The average price was also up from $266,598 in April 2009 to $274,203 last month. Once again, over half the homes that sold were under the $200,000 mark. On a rolling 12 month basis ending on April 31, 2010 there were 766 sales at an average sales price of $301,804 compared to 665 sales at an average of $318,187 for the same period ending April 30, 2009. That equates to a 15% increase in sales year to year. Pretty good!

The highest sale award in April goes to the property located at 140 Alpine Park Rd in Moultonborough at $3.8 million. It was the only sale over $1 million but is was a really nice one. The home is a new 8,000 square foot Adirondack Winnipesaukee waterfront on 2.8 acres land with a 288’ white sand beach. This high quality home by Scott Fuller Development has six bedrooms, eight baths, gourmet kitchen, great room, home theater, exercise room, a three car garage, and great sunset views.

Do you remember the 1972 rock classic by Steelers Wheels entitled “Stuck in the Middle With You”? It should be the new theme song for all of the mid-priced home owners (and maybe their agents) that are having a hard time selling their homes. The second verse (for those that need a hint) goes: “Yes, I’m stuck in the middle with you. And I’m wondering what I should do, It’s so hard to keep a smile on your face, Losing control, I’m all over the place, Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right, Here I am, Stuck in the middle with you” (you can designate who are the clowns and the jokers anyway you want). It seems like there always is a lot of focus put on the high end waterfront sales or the first time home buyer market, but what about the stuff stuck in the middle? What’s selling and why?

Well, what sold in the middle in the Lakes Region was mostly more waterfronts or at least water access! In the $200,000-300,000 price group there were eight sales that would be considered primary residences, two water access homes, and four waterfronts (two on Half Moon, one on Locke Lake, and one on Silver). In the $300,000-400,000 price range there were just two primary homes sold, three water access properties, and four waterfronts (two on Winnisquam and two on Winnipesaukee). In the $400,000 to $1 million category there were two water access homes and six waterfronts (two on Winnisquam and four on Winnipesaukee).That means 21 (out of 31) of the mid-priced homes had something to do with floating a boat or getting in the water!

An example of a single family home “in the middle” that did sell in April was a very nice 3,098 square foot, 4 bedroom, 2 bath colonial built in 2004 at 15 Simmons Court in Tilton. It was on the market for $294,000 and sold for $277,000. There also was a 3968 square foot, four bedroom, 4 bath colonial built in 2008 at 397 Bean Hill Road in Belmont. It was listed at $330,000, sold for an even $300,000, and with an assessment of $388,300 it seems like the new owner got a great deal. But it took 634 days to sell so it was stuck in the middle for more than just a little while.

Right now the problem is there are way too few buyers out there. So unless you are somehow able to “just add water”, my advice is to pay close attention to your price and make certain that your potential buyers see your home as a real value or you will be stuck for a while, too. So “If you are trying to make some sense of it all, But see that it makes no sense at all” stayed tuned to this column and I’ll keep an eye on the middle for you over the coming months…

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The Housing Market After Life Support…

Thursday, May 6th, 2010

There were 1169 residential homes available as of May 1 in the communities in this Lakes Region of NH real estate report. That is up from the 1083 homes that were on the market in May 2009. The current inventory level represents an 18.4 months supply of homes on the market.

Home sales will have to increase significantly in order to bring this high inventory level down to a more reasonable level. Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately), the housing market has been taken off life support. The first time home buyer credit of $8,000 has expired (they pulled the plug so to speak) and I don’t think that is necessarily a bad thing. No one can stay on life support forever. It will be interesting to see what happens moving forward with sales of homes under $200,000. Many first time buyers took advantage of this stimulus and as a result 56% of the homes sold last year in the Lakes Region were under $200,000. While propping up the housing market by stimulating sales was very necessary and essential to helping stabilize our economy, everything does comes at a price and someone has to pay for it. In this case it was us, the American taxpayer. The $8,000 tax credit worked well and helped many first time buyers buy homes and also kept the inventory levels from getting even higher. Now we just need to find a way keep that positive momentum going.

There will probably be some creative marketing by real estate agencies, banks, and mortgage companies promoting special incentives to keep the home buying ball rolling. I saw an article recently about a real estate company and a mortgage company teaming up in Florida to offer “The Home Buyer Mortgage Credit” to offset the loss of the government program. It touted that that agency’s participating home sellers would be offering 3% of the purchase price back to buyers to be used toward closing cost. Also the mortgage company was reducing its rate by 1% for the first year. I’m not sure that this “Home Buyer Mortgage Credit” is really anything new, but it was packaged to try to create some excitement and interest for potential buyers.

Sellers often agree to pay 3% cash back to the buyer at closing if it is necessary to make a deal happen. That 3% back helps a cash strapped buyer who may have enough money for the down payment but can’t cover his closing costs. Sometimes the seller won’t (or can’t) contribute to the buyer’s closing cost because he needs to recoup a certain amount of money. In those cases the 3% needed by the buyer for closing costs can get added on top of the purchase price as long as the property will appraise at the agreed upon price. In this case the buyer is still paying his closing costs, but he’s paying over time by rolling them into his mortgage.

Home buyers have also always been able to ”buy down” the interest rate on a home mortgage by paying points up front. The mortgage company in Florida says they are paying to reduce the interest rate, but just by 1% and just for one year. That probably costs them around $2,000 which may be money well spent if it creates a lot more sales volume for the lender. However, there is no way to know whether this incentive is a good deal or not until you know what the rate of the loan is and what other fees are associated with the loan. With this, or any program offered, you have to compare it with other lender’s programs to make sure you are getting the best deal possible and that there are no hidden costs. There will be more “incentives” offered in some form or another, but to me the best “incentive” for a buyer is finding a great home at a really great price.

Let’s hope the market will continue to improve over time on its own without the help of tax payer dollars. Artificially stimulating the housing market by providing loans to marginally qualified buyers, then disguising, packaging and reselling the loans to investors who didn’t know what they were buying is what got us into this whole mess to start with. But that’s all old news. Our free market system is generally pretty resilient, so let’s see if buyers and sellers can work out the incentives between themselves without any resuscitation. That’s the way it is supposed to be…

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Hard to believe–stronger sales headed into sping!

Thursday, April 15th, 2010

It is great to finally start reporting increases in the number of residential homes sold in the Lakes Region. Scary, isn’t it? It is hard to get used to and I hope I am not jinxing anything by speaking positively, but things do seem to be improving a little as we head into spring and summer selling seasons. In March 2010 there were 59 homes that changed hands. That is a 31% increase over the 44 posted for March 2009! The average price for the homes sold in March 2010 came in at $272,539 compared to $218,530 last March. There was a little shift in the price range of homes that are selling; last March 41% of the homes that sold were over $200,000 while this March that category increased to 56% of the total sales.

For the first quarter of 2010 there was a 22% increase in sales over the same period last year; from 112 sales up to 137. The average sales price came in at $308,062 for the first quarter of this year compared to $237,480 last year which is almost a 30% increase. As I have stated previously, the increases in the average sales price for homes in the area is reflective of what is selling and should not be misconstrued to mean that home prices themselves are going up. So far this year, 50% of the sales have been over $200,000 and 27% has been over the $300,000 mark. In the first 3 months of 2009, only 39% of the sales were over $200,000 and only 18% of the sales were over $300,000. An increase in sales of the mid to higher priced homes would be very welcome.

On a rolling 12 month basis (for the year ending March 31, 2010) total sales were up about 12% compared to the 12 month period ending March 31, 2009. The average price was down slightly at $302,071 compared to $329,120 for the prior year, but that will improve if the upward trend in sales of higher priced homes over the past several months continues. We hope.

There appeared to be some pretty good deals last month. For example, a 1910 vintage 7 room, 3 bedroom, 1½ bath, cape style home on 1.74 acres at 6 Singing Eagle Lane in Center Harbor was offered at $99,900 and sold above the asking price for $116,000. That was still only 49% of the assessed value of $237,200! Another great buy was found at 210 White Oaks Road in Laconia. This home has 2,162 square feet of living space, 3 bedrooms, 1½ baths, hardwood floors, a brick fireplace and lots of 1950’s character. It was offered at $139,900 and sold for only $115,000 which was 52% of assessed value. There were some good buys on waterfront property as well. A year round cottage at 115 Kimball Drive in Moultonborough with 33 feet of frontage in Hermit Cove on Winnipesaukeewas offered at $349,900 and sold for $300,500 (or 66% of the town’s current tax assessment). It just goes to show that great affordability and value can be found on the big lake.

There were no sales over $1 million this month which is a little unusual, so the honors for the largest sale this month go to the waterfront property at 69 Sawmill Brook Rd in Alton. This very nice 1,875 square foot year round, 3 bedroom lake home built in 2006 on a level half acre lot with 100 feet of frontage, sandy beach, and U shaped dock. The home features floor to ceiling living room windows with 180 degree views of the lake, gas fireplace, bamboo flooring throughout, state of the art kitchen, and a 2 car garage. It was offered at $849,000 and sold for $790,000. Unlike the homes above, this home sold at well above its tax assessment of $614,000. That doesn’t mean that this buyer paid too much for the property or that he didn’t get a good deal. Many fine properties sell for over their assessed value and they can still be a great deal (as I suspect this home was). Condition, location, functionality, amenities, and even some intangible qualities all play a role in whether a property provides the value that a buyer is looking for and makes that special property a good deal for him.

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